What’s Next for Blockchains?

The crypto industry has come a long way since Ethereum launched in 2015. Discussions about crypto as an asset class and blockchain infrastructure integration have matured. Policymakers across the globe are actively engaged. The number of public blockchains has grown significantly (see Table 1), and most of the world’s largest companies are actively exploring enterprise blockchain adoption (see Figure 1).

Top 10 Public Blockchain Networks by Market Cap

What’s Changed For Blockchains?

Although much has changed with blockchain technology and the crypto industry since 2015, some of the most important advances and differences are:

Ethereum’s launch and maturation advanced blockchain’s role as a foundational technology. While Bitcoin’s primary purpose was to provide a decentralized alternative to fiat currency, Ethereum focused on blockchains as a transformative business technology. Second only to Bitcoin in market capitalization, Ethereum is the multifaceted smart contract enabled general purpose blockchain, with the most developers, applications (dApps), total value locked, and cross-chain compatibility. Its programmability has enabled stablecoin, DeFi, and NFT growth and laid the groundwork for a future that will be muti-chained and modular. What monolithic chains such as Bitcoin try to do in one layer (i.e., consensus, data availability, execution, settlement), modular chains such as Ethereum split across different chains or network layers. This unbundling and optimization improve performance, making them faster, more customizable, and energy efficient than monolithic ones. Ethereum ditched its monolithic architecture last fall, when it completed The Merge and became a proof-of-stake (PoS) chain and is undertaking a multi-year upgrade to further modularize its infrastructure stack.¹

Public blockchains are becoming more business-ready. Sidechains, Layer 2 (L2) rollup scaling solutions, and modular chains like Cosmos and Avalanche are kickstarting a new era of enterprise blockchain adoption by helping public chains meet enterprise requirements around security, privacy, and speed (see The State of Enterprise Blockchain Adoption). Ethereum sidechain Polygon has committed $1 billion to develop Zero-Knowledge (ZK) cryptographic technologies that bolster L2 scalability, privacy, verification, and decentralization.² It’s partnered with Ernst & Young to develop Nightfall – a privacy focused optimistic rollup designed to reduce token transfer costs – and is working with firms like Starbucks and SalesForce to build and launch their NFT based loyalty program. PoS chain Hedera, whose global governing council includes IBM, Google, and Boeing, uses permissioned nodes to better secure its public ledger. To simplify application development, Hyperledger Firefly, an open-source middleware API orchestration and data toolkit, recently upgraded so developers can simultaneously push application code to both permissioned chains and eight leading public chains.³ And Obscuro, an Ethereum L2 in testing, allows developers to adjust how long data is kept private on a dApp based on different application use cases like gaming or trading.⁴

Stablecoin and CBDC design discussions are now meaningful and have garnered regulatory attention. In the space of a few years, policymakers have become much more alert to industry developments and proactive about understanding how blockchain technologies impact business operations and global trade. In 2015, the Treasury Department’s Financial Stability Oversight Council’s (FSOC) annual report contained one paragraph on digital assets.⁵ In 2022, it wrote a 124-page report on the subject.⁶ The 2015 report didn’t mention stablecoins and CBDCs, as both were in their infancy. Yet, in the last eight years, stablecoins have grown from almost nothing to $134 billion, 11 countries including Jamaica, Nigeria, and the Bahamas have launched a CBDC, and 83% of central banks have active CBDC projects.⁷ In the U.S., 2022 was a watershed year for digital asset, stablecoin, and CBDC regulatory discussions (see Figure 3). Global policymakers were busy too. With MiCa, the E.U. became the first international entity to bring crypto assets, issuers, and service providers under a harmonized regulatory framework, and the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) is undertaking eight CBDC, smart contract, or DeFi related projects.

Key 2022 U.S. Federal Blockchain and Crypto-Related Policy Actions

Emergence of Web3 as a vision for the internet. In 2015, blockchain industry discussions centered on bitcoin as an alternative to fiat currency and how distributed ledger technology could help the financial services industry more efficiently handle record keeping, payments, and identity management.⁸ The vision now encompasses something bigger, the notion that multiple, connected public blockchains can underpin a new, more resilient, decentralized, and democratized web (see Web3: A Tokenized Web). Web3 would leverage key blockchain features: distributed node architecture to combat data breaches and hacks; tokens to let individuals reclaim some control over their data; and the composability of open source software to allow customized user experiences.⁹ How Web3 will manifest is an open question, but this broader Web3 vision allows developers, founders and investors to see past short-term headlines and crypto asset price swings to focus attention instead on what the technology can enable. And, while we think blockchains will play an important role in the next generation of the Internet, Web3 has its skeptics. For example, Tim Berners-Lee, the founder of the World Wide Web, thinks distributed ledgers are too slow, expensive, and public to be a viable foundation for the web’s next iteration.¹⁰

What’s Next for Blockchain Adoption?

While there’s been a lot of progress over the past eight years, blockchain technology will have to keep evolving to become more broadly business-ready. One analogy for the current state of the technology: It’s like we are putting together a puzzle, where the border is somewhat complete but the middle picture mostly blank. So how will the picture get filled in? With:

Continued focus on interoperability between legacy technologies and blockchains. Companies are realizing that to remain competitive their technology infrastructure must be able to communicate with public and private chains. Tech firms, core chain development teams, and industry associations are all trying to enable that. Google recently launched Blockchain Node Engine, a cloud-based node-hosting service that makes it faster and easier for firms to connect to and work on Ethereum. It also inked deals to give BNB Chain startups, NEAR grant recipients, and Aptos developers access to Google Cloud technical support so that they can build and scale dApps without worrying as much about hardware limitations or security.¹¹ Ethereum L2 ZkSync added programming languages Java, Python, and Go to its Software Development Kit (SDK) because supporting coding languages that developers already know should help them write blockchain applications faster.¹² Crypto data provider, Chainlink is working with interbank messaging system SWIFT to test if its open-source Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol can enable SWIFT messages to communicate and move tokens across all blockchains.¹³ And SalesForce offers a set of pre-written smart contracts to help brands mint, manage, and sell NFTs on PoS chains, and provides one-click access to a carbon credit marketplace so clients can easily buy offsetting carbon credits for the NFTs they mint.¹⁴

…and between public chain ecosystems. Blockchains aren’t natively capable of communicating with each other. “Cross-chains” (bridges and protocols) connect chains by facilitating token and data transfers between L1s, L2s, and dApps (see Figure 4). Current cross-chain transfers are slow, complicated, and vulnerable to security exploits. For example, token transfers via L1 bridges typically take seven to 13 minutes; require users to make as many as 50 clicks; and use multiple wallets to pay fees.¹⁵ They are also prime hacker targets, accounting for 64% of all hackers induced losses last year.¹⁶ A host of solutions are being developed to improve cross-chain links’ useability and security. MetaMask’s Portfolio App aggregates accounts across seven chains so that users can see all their crypto and NFT holdings in one place and recommends optimal cross-chain routes for transfers.¹⁷ UNI Axelar partnered with L2 Polygon to deliver secure cross-chain communication to Polygon Supernets, a highly customizable blockchain stack. And, USDC stablecoin issuer Circle offers a Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol to help developers more easily build cross-chain apps.¹⁸ When it comes to interoperability, Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatibility allows developers to write a smart contract once for it to be deployable across all changes. This has become a de-facto standard: 84% of smart contract enabled blockchains are EVM compatible, with others like Ripple and Algorand working towards it.¹⁹ Chains view EVM compatibility as a way to boost growth.

Cross-Chain Interoperability Solutions

A better understanding of what operations are best suited for blockchains. Chains serve as secure ledgers of record, excel at coordinating complex, multi-party, high-volume data tasks, and provide access to real-time data. Specific business needs and regulatory requirements will guide adoption, but firms are starting to grasp the best uses of the technology in areas like:

Supply Chain Management and Logistics. Every industry with a complicated supply chain is exploring how blockchains can help streamline operations, enhance traceability and foster new solutions. SIMBA Chain, a DARPA-funded blockchain-as-a-service provider with clients like Boeing and Dow, is building a blockchain-based budgeting system so that the U.S. Air Force can better track and monitor fund movement across billing centers, purchasing teams, and suppliers.²⁰ Estonia is using Guardtime’s VaccineGuard to issue its citizens’ COVID-19 vaccination certificates, and to secure vaccine supply chains between public health authorities, hospitals, manufacturers, and border guards.²¹ Walmart Canada reduced freight invoices requiring manual reconciliation from 70% to less than 1.5% by leveraging Hyperledger Fabric.²² Many firms are also using blockchains to reach sustainability goals. Unilever wants to achieve a deforestation-free supply chain by 2023 and is using SAP’s GreenToken platform for greater traceability and transparency in its palm oil supply chain.²³ Setting their sights higher, firms including Vakt, GSBN, Covantis, CargoX, and Wave BL are working with the likes of Chevron, MSC Cargill, and Oracle to develop blockchain-based products to digitize trade finance and to streamline shipping logistics on a global scale.

Healthcare and Life Sciences. Blockchain opportunities in healthcare solutions are diverse, from managing supply chains and streamlining operations to verifying medical records and providing new ways to monitor patient health. MediLedger Network, a consortia with members like AmerisourceBergen, McKesson, and Cardinal Health, is trying to prevent counterfeit drugs from entering pharma supply chains. Members use QR codes to scan returned pills and verify in less than a second (versus the more common 48 hours today) if they are authentic and reenter the supply chain.²⁴ Avaneer Health, Synaptic Health Alliance, and Solve.Care aim to streamline processes and cut costs by helping providers, insurers, and data exchanges sync, manage, and secure records, invoices, and insurance claims. Startups Patientory and Prescryptive focus instead on patients, with a mobile app tied to a HIPPA/GDPR compliant blockchain where they can manage, opt into clinical trials, and shop for prescription drugs. In life sciences, SAMChain, developed by Yale geneticists, is the first blockchain capable of storing and analyzing an entire genomic sequence on-chain. Researchers believe that SAMChain may accelerate genome sequencing becoming a part of routine medical care.²⁵

Financial Services. When the Federal Reserve first studied blockchains in 2016, they saw long-term potential but limited current applicability. Seven years later, 60 countries are in advanced stages of CBDC exploration. Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe use stablecoins to facilitate global payments. And the path to a blockchain-based infrastructure for the financial services industry is being charted by incumbents and fintechs alike. The DTCC, SWIFT, and BIS are working with industry participants on a variety of pilots and parallel production tests to see how blockchains could streamline processes like settlement and cross-border payments and cultivate institutional DeFi and smart contract-based marketplaces. Startups Axoni, Symbiont, and Tassat offer capital market and payment products used by the likes of BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Vanguard. And, asset managers Apollo, KKR, and Hamilton Lane have partnered with fintechs ADDX, Figure and Securitize to tokenize a portion of their funds, which has enabled them to automate investor compliance and reduce ticket-size minimums from $125,000 to $10,000.²⁶ But the path ahead won’t be without its setbacks: Last November, the Australian Securities Exchange cancelled a six-year project to move its workflow on-chain, while the Bank of Korea decided the technology is not mature enough to support a retail CBDC.²⁷

Government. Blockchain’s immutable recordkeeping and multi-party coordination capabilities have been pitched to streamline operations, upgrade identity management systems and mitigate corruption. The U.S., China, UAE, India, and South Korea all have directives to accelerate blockchain R&D. President Biden’s Executive Order on Digital Assets outlines the first U.S. whole-of-government strategy to promote responsible blockchain innovation and competition. The E.U.’s European Blockchain Services Infrastructure is a public sector chain focused on improving cross-border services like passports and university credentials. China continues to expand its blockchain infrastructure project (BSN), adding in NFT functionality and launching an international version last year.²⁸ Police in the Indian city of Firozabad use a blockchain based public grievance registry to curb police evidence tampering and allow citizens to track case progress in real-time.²⁹ South Korea and Rhode Island are planning trials to see how the technology could secure digital identities.³⁰ And, staggered that only 9% of Canadian plastic waste is recycled, Alberta’s provisional government is developing reciChain, a public-private partnership to incentivize plastics recycling that it hopes will launch in 2024.³¹

Brand loyalty and engagement. Firms are exploring how NFTs and fungible tokens can boost brand loyalty and personalize customer engagement. Nike’s already raced ahead. It’s generated revenues of $185 million from Ethereum based NFTs, roughly three times more than Web3-focused brands Dolce & Gabbana, Tiffany and Gucci combined.³² Nike recently launched .SWOOSH, a Web3-based site to spotlight its NFT collections and give users the ability to co-create tokens and share in royalties.³³ Budweiser is putting its Clydesdale horses into Zed Run’s Ethereum-based horse racing game where users can buy skins based on the famed mascots and compete in races offerings prize money up to $95,000.³⁴ Seeing an opportunity to make it easier to connect blockchains to Web2 frontends, firms like Oracle, Shopify and Web3 brand specialist Arianne provide tools to help brands design, deploy, and manage token-based products and Web3 communities.

A rapidly evolving ecosystem. Just as a vibrant ecosystem of technology vendors, designers, consultants and others emerged to support businesses looking to undergo a digital transformation, look for something similar to happen with blockchain. Bain & Company’s Web3 and digital asset database already tracks more than 4,000 firms in the blockchain ecosystem – everything from blockchain networks to core infrastructure providers and developer tools -- that cumulatively raised more than $80 billion through June 2022.³⁵ Some of the interesting categories in this evolving ecosystem are blockchain-as-a-service providers like Kaleido, Alchemy, and Amazon’s Managed Blockchain which help firms use cloud-based solutions to build, host, and operate their own chains, dApps, and nodes, as well as blockchain cybersecurity firms like Chainanalysis, TRM Labs, and OpenZeppelin that monitor on-chain transactions to prevent fraud, complete smart code audits to identify security vulnerabilities, and allow businesses to be KYC compliant.

Emerging technologies like AI and IoT bolster blockchains’ performance. Blockchains aren’t developing in insolation. In fact a lot of work is underway to enhance blockchains with AI’s intelligence and IoT’s data collection prowess. Acentrik, a blockchain-AI data sharing marketplace started by the Mercedes Benz Group, incentivizes firms to buy and sell data sets by enabling users to run algorithms and glean insights without exposing the raw data.³⁶ Syntegra, a generative AI healthcare startup, uses Acentrik to publish synthetic electronic health records and claims datasets for use in clinical trials.³⁷ Blackbird.AI is a blockchain-AI disinformation risk intelligence platform that rates the credibility of news content and then stores those ratings on-chain so that brands can find and fight fake news. Xage is a startup that combines blockchain, AI and IoT to secure critical infrastructures like water supplies and electrical grids. And, with funding from Draper Dragon and Samsung Next, MachineFi Labs is building a platform that will let developers connect billions of IoT devices and Web3 infrastructures.

Why It Matters

Blockchain is a rapidly evolving technology. As such, there are some important considerations for business leaders:

Remember that it’s still a young technology. Given its freshman status, blockchain’s performance, reliability, and privacy issues persist, and are still being worked through. Blockchain developers, enterprise tool vendors, and ecosystem players are still determining what can and cannot be done on chain and wrestling with how to improve interoperability for a multi-chain world. Meanwhile, a diverse breadth of talent including developers, lawyers, cybersecurity experts and designers is tackling how best to connect Web3 infrastructures with legacy technology and legal systems, and to improve its security and user experience. As with any emerging technology, advances will not roll out in a straight line, but instead in fits and starts.

Look beyond the financial services industry for use cases. While there’s a lot going on within specific sectors–– like financial services –– much can be learned from how companies in other industries deploy blockchains. From healthcare and energy to retail and technology, a diverse set of companies are exploring how blockchains can change business operations. Analyzing these use cases – understanding their goals, design, use of partners and vendors, and effectiveness – could highlight utility, interdependencies, and limitations in deploying blockchains across one’s business.

Expect policymakers to engage and seek insights as they try to address regulatory uncertainty. Policymakers are keen to bring oversight to the crypto industry. From broad directives encouraging blockchain innovation to proposed stablecoin legislation and hearings held following FTX’s collapse last year, they’re yearning to understand the big picture for blockchains, including how chains will communicate with legacy technology infrastructures and other public chain ecosystems. Insights into successful or failed use cases should be highlighted and discussed as they will bring more clarity to where and when the technology should be adopted.